Item description for The Knowledge Ahead Approach to Risk: Theory and Experimental Evidence (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems) by Robin Pope...
This book is written for those seeking a decision theory appropriate for use in serious choices such as insurance. It employs stages of knowledge ahead to track satisfactions and dissatisfactions. In the first stage of risk, the uninsured face dissatisfactions of worries and planning difficulties (avoided by the insured), also perhaps positive satisfactions of thrills (missed out on by the insured). In the second stage when the risk is passed the uninsured may face the dissatisfactions of ridicule and blame if they learn that they were unlucky. From experimental and questionnaire data, people take into account such stages of knowledge ahead satisfactions and dissatisfactions. This means we must go beyond standard decision theories like expected utility or cumulative prospect theory which are irrationally atemporal (single stage) theories, ignoring the initial risky stage to be endured or enjoyed before learning whether one has been lucky or unlucky.
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Est. Packaging Dimensions: Length: 9.29" Width: 6.06" Height: 0.55" Weight: 0.85 lbs.
Release Date Nov 16, 2006
ISBN 3540384723 ISBN13 9783540384724
Availability 133 units. Availability accurate as of Oct 23, 2016 02:29.
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Reviews - What do customers think about The Knowledge Ahead Approach to Risk: Theory and Experimental Evidence (Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems)?
Well worth the read! Sep 5, 2007
This slim, highly readable book should be read by all those interested in risk management, judgment and choice. It is well worth the time spent.
The text provides an important and welcome contrast to conventional thinking. All too often academics and practitioners construct prescriptions or forecasts of people's behavior, based on convenient notions of how they actually do think and act. This text exposes the shallowness of standard "wisdom". It provides extensive data, presented in easy to understand form, on a remarkable set of measurements that document the weakness of established approaches, of utility theory specifically. For that reason alone, it deserves a place on the shelf of anyone seriously interested in how people make choices.
Additionally, the book develops -- in the best form I have seen -- the argument for the importance of temporal effects in our decision-making processes. This also merits our serious consideration. It provides a stimulating contrast to conventional theories that neglect or minimize how people change their perspectives on risks as they face and undergo them. Dr.Pope and her colleagues are to be commended for making this material easily accessible.