Item description for The Bear Book: Survive and Profit in Ferocious Markets by John Rothchild...
"Rothchild finds some compelling evidence that a Bear might be lurking in the woods. [He] addresses the subject with candor."-The Wall Street Journal
"In a timely antidote to the fever now raging in the markets, Rothchild's new book dishes a long dive when investors least expect it." -Washington Post Book World
April 14, 2000. The Dow drops over 600 points. Investors the world over receive a startling reminder that "what goes up, must come down." Today's exceptionally volatile markets exemplify the hair-raising financial instability that most analysts see as a continuing trend. More than ever before, investors deserve a sound explanation of how to profit-or minimize loss-in such a climate, and be prepared for the inevitable dips. In Survive and Profit in Ferocious Markets, bestselling financial writer John Rothchild provides a rare understanding of profit making when the markets are tenuous, with volatility at every turn. Here is specific, comprehensive, and timely information on: * Where the economy is going and how exactly to invest in it * How investors can negotiate the awkward terrain between the new and old economies * Investment strategies at different stages of a volatile market * The psychology of investing, a history of the markets, and biographies of prominent investors, including Roy Neuberger and Philip Carret
With wit, wisdom, and a penchant for telling a good story, Rothchild provides all investors, from novices to pros, with the tools to protect their investments and prosper.
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Est. Packaging Dimensions: Length: 9.09" Width: 5.99" Height: 0.78" Weight: 0.85 lbs.
Release Date Oct 9, 2000
ISBN 0471348821 ISBN13 9780471348825
Availability 0 units.
More About John Rothchild
JOHN ROTHCHILD co-wrote the blockbusters One Up on Wall Street, Beating the Street, and Learn to Earn (all with Peter Lynch). He is the sole author of The Bear Book, A Fool and His Money, and Going for Broke. A former editor of the Washington Monthly and Fortune magazine, Rothchild has written for Harper's, Rolling Stone, Esquire, and other magazines. He has appeared on the Today show, the Nightly Business Report, and CNBC.
John Rothchild currently resides in Miami Beach, in the state of Florida.
Reviews - What do customers think about The Bear Book: Survive and Profit in Ferocious Markets?
The Short Story of Watered-Down Money May 29, 2004
1. Greek leaders had a huge federal payroll too meet and many bureaucratic mouths to feed, on top of expensive wars and costly road building and drainage. 2. Three escapes: a. raise taxes b. fire bureaucrats and cut government spending c. spend at the usual carefree pace, but put less precious metal in the coins. 3. The continental colonist could not pay for their revolution with taxes. They financed the war with a huge print run of "Continentials" sent to troops and suppliers as payment for their services. Nothing of substance was backing the new currency. When merchants began to refuse the new currency the revolutionist made it a crime to refuse the new currency. 4. The Continential congress issued new paper worth twenty of the originals. The new money quick lost its buying power. By issuing sham currency, the Revolutionary government had imposed what amounted to a 97.5 percent tax on the recipients. 5. By the late 1700s paper money was discredited and the United States along with other countries put themselves on the Gold standard. Banks could issue notes redeemable in gold. The Gold standard created the first reliable cash in human memory. It created problems because banks could only distribute notes proportion to the gold they had in their vaults. Congress did not renew the Bank of the United States charter; the second bank of the United States came under political attack and its demise caused the panic of 1819 and a third bank was not created until 1913. After the panic of 1819 the gold standard was relaxed and state banks appeared to take advantage printing more notes than they had tangible assets to cover. 6. In the mid 1800s, the federal government force banks out of the money business by imposing a huge tax on their cash. Every since the U.S Treasury has had the monopoly on money. 7. The U.S Treasury created a huge supply of greenbacks to finance the Civil War and terrible inflation made the greenback as worthless as the continental. Two World Wars and the Vietnam War were financed in similar fashion. 8. To fight inflation the central bank raised interest rates. The remedy was too create a recession. 9. Sep 1944, politicians and bankers from the Allied nations met at Bretton Woods to devise a new system of fixed exchange rates. 10. Each currency was assigned a price range within it could trade, in relation to the US dollar. So for example if the Swiss franc was too expense, the Swiss Central bank would enter the market and sell francs and buy dollars. This action would push the Swiss franc down and the dollar up. If a country refused too devalues, other countries would amass the non-conforming countries currency, approach the country's central bank and demand a swap for gold. The choice remained devalue or deplete. The pressure to devalue was considered the lesser of the two evils.
Bears and Bulls can't be predicted - Its guess work, only May 26, 2004
Bonds 1. Bonds are profitable as interest rates are dropping, if a capital gain can be realized. A capital gain occurs when the seller has bought a bond with a high yield rate and the sells when the market yield has dropped. The difference in yield creates value because the seller's bond is preceived to be more value because of the difference in the yield cash flow. The perceived value translated into a higher selling price, for the seller. Price is a function of the cash flow difference in the yield. The positive difference in buy and sell bond price is the capital gain.
2. When interest rates are climbing, investor money moves back into security, treasures, funds which take advantage of the higher interest rates.
Stocks 1. 15 percent growth is a 20th century phenomenia 2. Stock before 1950 averaged 6 percent. The author is not impressed with Stocks nor their long term performance. 3. Stocks can fluctuate 50 percent in price in a given year. This can lead to mixed signal of buy high and sell low rather than buy low and sell high. 4. Market timing to buy and sell a stock creates massive numbers of losers 5. Buying and Selling Stocks always makes the Brokerage House the winner. The experts have 100 to 1 the advantage.
Gold 1. Gold doesn't earn interest. Gold costs to store. Gold is a safety against the dropping value of cash. 2. Increases during inflation. Inflation increase as the government prints more money
Cash 1. Cash is the most desired medium. Cash is liquid and readily exchangable for goods and service. The decision to buy company stock or build a new company is based on the replacement value of the company. 2. The Federal Reserve controls the inflow and outflow of the money supply 3. The money supply effects the interest rates. As money becomes more difficult to lend the interest rates go up. As money becomes cheap the interest rates go down.
New Bull High 1. All the bear advisors must capitulate 2. 80 percent of the market must be bullish 3. The market must be in a recession 4. Money must be moving out of mutal fund
Bull Assumptions 1. Bulls are very optimistic 2. During a Bull market very little attention is given to Bear advise 3. Global events, earthquakes, wars, oil shortages, etc have immediate impacts on Bull momentum.
New Bear 1. Prices are deflating 2. The price to earning ratio are moving higher or have reached new price levels 3. The yield curve is inversed. Deflation cause bond activity and bond sell off in a bear helps investor take a profit. 4. Deflation, P/E, and Inverse yield hit the market only once in the 1930s 5. Deflation has not be a factor since the great depression 6. The best bear predictor in the market has been an astrologer. The author this Russell was pretty lucky. Averages, statistic, genetic algorithms, and simulators have not been able to find an market equation.
Bear Assumptions 1. There is no known scientific way too predict a bear trend. At best Artifical Intelligence system can mimck the behavior patterns of one expert in a simulation. 2. Bear markets cycle about every six and half years, however, there is no way to predict the cycle is reliable. Some of the worst bailouts came because of leverage billions of dollars hedged against a downturn in the market, a downturn that didn't happen on time. 3. Bear warnings such as six months of downward price pressure is inconclusive proof the market will move into a bear market. 4. Company can be performing excellent and demonstrate increasing earnings; however increasing earning does not guarentee higher prices. So, a doubling in earnings one year does not mean a doubling of price, also, only the market's players desire too move the price higher will cause higher prices. Some have tried to model market player emotions/expectation with little success. 5. Contratrism will not always work and in many cases increases the pain and carnage. Going against the pattern of the crowd goals is too find bargins during cycles of fear and greed.
The book shoots its target Aug 25, 2003
Someone said that the book doesnt teach how to predict bear markets. I would rate it ridiculous if it aimed at that. No one can. (The market goes where it wants to go remember?) Just like stop losses, shorts are a tool, learn how to use them. This is not a pure technical book ,but it is probably one of the most enjoyable to read about this thing we all love: trading. And if one recomendation is allowed on the technical side: Stock patterns for day trading and swing trading by Barry Rudd (No comissions here, lol) Best regards
If you like stock market books! Jan 9, 2002
This is a history of various market declines and panics. Providing some useful insight, it is well written and deviates from the normal how to buy stocks book. If you want a good read and like stock market and finance books, you should like this.
Witty and sardonic, an delight to read! Jul 28, 2001
When I found this book at the bookstore and glanced within, I couldn't put it down! John Rothschild draws from history to characterize US bear stock markets (from the late 1800s until publishing date in 1998). He presents the information in a witty, light-hearted, sardonic manner. The info is very up-to-date and insightful including analogies to the Japanese bear market in the 90s and the US bear markets of 1929, 1968, 1973, 1981, and 1990. The treatment of the Great Crash of 1929 was perceptive (e.g., it should be called the Crash of 1931). As a trader for the past 8 years who leans to the bear side, I relate very well to both the content of this book and the writing style. The author aptly notes, short-sellers have been cursed since the beginning of time itself; yet without them, bear markets would be more vicious and devastating. In a decline, it is the short-covering that holds the market and not the conventional wisdom of buying by cash-rich mutual funds. Hats off to the author for a delightful book!