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Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading: A Study in Analytical Economics [Hardcover]

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Item description for Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading: A Study in Analytical Economics by Bertrand M. Roehner...

Besides analyzing stock markets, the book considers a wide range of speculative markets for various items such as real estate, commodities , postage-stamps, antiquarian books. In particular, it highlights the following regularities:(i) During a speculative episode, the price of expensive items increases more than the price of less expensive items. This is referred to as price multiplier effect.(ii) Price peaks for stocks and most commodities on average follow a well-defined pattern that we call the sharp peak - flat through pattern; in contrast real estate price peaks follow a flat peak pattern.(iii) The stocks whose prices experience the strongest increase during a bull market, better resist during the subsequent bear market, an effect referred to as the resilience pattern. Such regularities pave the way for a mathematical theory of speculation. Being mainly empirical, the book is easy to read and does not require technical prerequisites in finance, economics or mathematics.

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Item Specifications...

Pages   229
Est. Packaging Dimensions:   Length: 9.49" Width: 6.41" Height: 0.72"
Weight:   1.16 lbs.
Binding  Hardcover
Release Date   Mar 1, 2001
Publisher   Springer
ISBN  3540412948  
ISBN13  9783540412946  

Availability  0 units.

More About Bertrand M. Roehner

Register your artisan biography and upload your photo! A theoretical physicist by education, Dr Bertrand M. Roehner has been investigating social and economic phenomena during the past 15 years. He is the author of Theory of Markets (1995) which explored the space-time structure of commodity prices, and also of Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading (2001). The approach used in these books demonstrates how the observational strategy invented by physicists and successfully applied in astrophysics and biophysics, can be fruitfully applied in the social sciences as well. Professor Roehner has been a visiting scholar at the Harvard Department of Economics (1994 and 1998) and at the Copenhagen Institute of Economics (1996); and he currently serves on the physics faculty of the University of Paris VII.

Bertrand M. Roehner was born in 1946 and has an academic affiliation as follows - Universite de Paris VII (Denis Diderot).

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Product Categories

1Books > Special Features > New & Used Textbooks > Business & Finance > Economics
2Books > Subjects > Business & Investing > Economics > General
3Books > Subjects > Business & Investing > Economics
4Books > Subjects > Business & Investing > General
5Books > Subjects > Business & Investing > Investing > General
6Books > Subjects > Business & Investing > Investing > Options
7Books > Subjects > Professional & Technical > Accounting & Finance > Finance > General
8Books > Subjects > Professional & Technical > Accounting & Finance > International > Finance > Finance & Investing

Reviews - What do customers think about Hidden Collective Factors in Speculative Trading: A Study in Analytical Economics?

A prediction about the NASDAQ and other great stories  Oct 27, 2002
Published in January 2001 this book contains
(p. 176) a prediction about the course of the
NASDAQ that up to now (i.e. 27 October 2002) is
fairly well matched by the actual fall of the
NASDAQ Composite Index over the period 2000-2002.
Strangely enough, that prediction is not based
on a sophisticated stochastic model, but rather
on the observation of previous stock price
peaks such as the one in Paris in 1882, the crash
in Paris in early 1929, the crash in New York in late
1929 and several others.
You may think that such an approach based on the analysis
of recurrent events after all is not different from
what chartists are doing. There is however a big difference.
Here the approach works
because it compares events which
are brought about by similar phenomena.
An example may
help to better understand that point. Obviously, it
would be an hopeless task to base a forecast of tomorrow's
weather on the weather observed on previous days. However,
it does make sense in August
to forecast the average temperature
in New York City six months later for this prediction
is based on
a well-defined phenomenon, namely the rotation of the
Earth around the Sun. Similarly, the author shows that
behind stock price peaks there are
indeed specific recurrent phenomena; note that these
phenomena are not confined to the sole financial sphere
but are deeply rooted in the society as a whole.
The book is not only about stock markets but considers
all kinds of speculative fever whether affecting stocks,
real estate, postage stamps, collector books, sugar, silver
or diamonds. The section about real estate markets
is of particular interest at the present moment. It shows
that real estate price peaks ressemble stock price
peaks in the sense that they are almost symmetrical with
respect to the maximum, but they are smoother and
the shift from the up- to the down-going
phase is gradual instead
of being sudden and abrupt as was the case for the NASDAQ.
At the end of the book the author provides several useful
data sets such as real estate prices in Britain and
Paris, price of individual NYSE stocks during the crash of
1929 and so on.
There is an insightful story on almost every page of this
book. Highly recommended.

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